How Unlikely Are Simultaneous Major Floods in Texas and New Mexico?
Twin 20–30 Foot Floods within days
Subtitle: A Statistical Look at Twin 20–30 Foot Floods Happening Within the Same Week
Some of you who follow my work know that I often like to back up observations with a bit of math—especially when it comes to patterns that don’t seem normal. While I’m not drawing final conclusions just yet, the recent, nearly back-to-back reports of 20–30 foot flood events in both Texas and New Mexico caught my attention. It raises valid questions, and perhaps even suspicions.
At the very least, the statistical odds of this happening naturally are worth investigating. Is it coincidence, or could there be other factors at play—be it climate anomalies, cloud seeding, or atmospheric manipulation? I’ll leave deeper theories to the scientists and investigative journalists for now. But before that, let’s ground our curiosity in a hard number:
Let’s Get Scientific About the Probability
Step 1: Estimate the Historical Frequency
Major floods of 20–30 feet are generally rare. Historical data suggests they occur roughly once every 25 years in any one major river basin in either Texas or New Mexico. That gives each state a 4% chance per year of experiencing such an event.
Step 2: Break It Down by Week
Spread across 52 weeks, the chance of such a flood happening in any given week is:
0.04 / 52 = ~0.000769 or 0.0769% per week per state.
Assuming the events in Texas and New Mexico are independent (which may not be entirely true, but it gives us a baseline), the chance of both states flooding in the same week is:
0.000769 × 0.000769 ≈ 0.000000592 or 0.0000592%
That’s 1 in 1.7 million odds per week.
Step 3: Account for a 7-Day Window
If we open the window to "within one week of each other" (±3 days), then we have 51 overlapping weekly windows in a year. This gives us an annual probability of:
51 × 0.000000592 ≈ 0.0000302 or 0.00302% annually
That’s about a 1-in-33,000-year event.
Conclusion
If both Texas and New Mexico experienced major flooding within a 7-day span—as recent reports suggest—we are looking at a statistically extraordinary event. While the math alone doesn’t prove anything beyond rarity, it does raise eyebrows.
Events like this merit more than just a passing glance. They deserve serious attention, perhaps even a formal inquiry—whether it be into natural climate shifts or less discussed mechanisms like cloud seeding or geoengineering.
For now, consider this a mathematical bookmark—a signal that something unusual may be happening, and worth a closer look.
